To start off, I want to make it clear that this is not a ranking based on power. This is not a compilation of the best eight college basketball teams according to my perspective, nor is it a list of the teams I anticipate to be in the top eight a month from now.
This is a compilation of the top eight teams with the highest chances of winning the national championship in seven weeks. It is guaranteed that the team that emerges victorious at State Farm Stadium will be one of the teams on this list.
Let us begin.
1. Connecticut Huskies (24-3, 14-2)
Do not allow the unexpected defeat at Creighton on Tuesday night to influence your decision: UConn remained the top team in college basketball this year and is the most probable team to win the championship in Phoenix.
Should this occur, the Huskies will make history as the first team to win back-to-back national championships since Billy Donovan and Florida in 2006 and 2007.
This year’s UConn squad is undeniably more formidable (with a significant gap) compared to the one that achieved a record-breaking victory at the NCAA tournament championship in 2023.
Danny Hurley’s squad appears to have improved significantly on the offensive end. Tristen Newton, who was a major uncertainty for the team last year, has transformed into a versatile first-team All-American. Freshman Stephon Castle has also made a name for himself and is projected to be a top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer is known for his clutch three-pointers and is often the target of opposing fans’ animosity. Alex Karaban is a reliable player who can perform at a star level on any given night. And if Donovan Clingan were not injured, he would be a dominant force in the center position.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (23-3, 12-3)
If you were to apply the same Profile of Purdue to the names “Duke Blue Devils” or “Michigan State Spartans”, there would be no question that you are the top candidate to win at the start of April.
Regrettably, Purdue’s prestige continues to advance independently.
Matt Painter and the Purdue Boilermakers have been a single-digit seed in the past eight NCAA tournaments and a top-four seed in the last six. However, they have only advanced past the sweet 16 once during this time. They have also been eliminated six times by lower-seeded teams and in the last three years, their season has ended with a 13 seed, a 15 seed, and a memorable 16 seed.
However, there is evidence to suggest that order will be reinstated and that Purdue’s playoffs will more closely resemble the regular season this time.
3. Houston Cougars (23-3, 10-3) USA
The transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 did not “de-mystify” Kelvin Sampson’s team as anticipated. In fact, it appears to have only bolstered their strength.
Houston ranks first in nearly all of the advanced metrics worldwide, remaining undefeated in home games this season and boasting the most formidable defense among the many solid ones implemented by Sampson upon his arrival in Bayou City.
UH possesses the necessary talent to secure six victories within a span of three weeks. This is largely due to the presence of all-American contender Jamal Shead. Although L. J. Cryer, a transfer from Baylor, holds the title of top scorer on the team, it is Shead who has the ability to single-handedly take on a game that was once evenly matched.
4. Arizona Wildcats (20-5, 11-3)
The last time a West Coast team won the national championship in men’s college basketball was in 1997 when Lute Olson and Arizona shocked Kentucky. This season, it appears that the Wildcats – Arizona, not Kentucky – have the strongest chance of bringing the title back to the West Coast.
Tommy Lloyd’s initial two and a half years in Tucson were incredibly successful. He guided the Wildcats to a top seed in 2022, followed by a No. 2 seed last year. Currently, if the season were to end, Arizona would be the fourth team chosen by the selection committee.
Regrettably, he has not achieved success in the top-tier NCAA tournaments. Zona suffered a defeat from the fifth-seeded Sweet 16 from North Carolina two years ago, and was also upset by 15th-seeded Princeton in the first round last March.
5. Tennessee Volunteers (20-6, 10-3)
In regards to this matter, it is necessary to remove any past thoughts in order to envision a scenario where one team emerges victorious in all aspects.
Tennessee has yet to make an appearance in the Final Four.
Rick Barnes leads a team this season that has the potential to reach this stage and cause even more destruction afterwards.
Last year, there were numerous claims that Tennessee would break records with its adjusted defensive efficiency. Although the team managed to eliminate the renowned Duke in the second round of the Final Four, their lack of offense ultimately led to their defeat against Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16.
6. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3)
North Carolina’s claim as a legitimate national title contender is currently facing challenges, as the Tar Heels have been alternating between wins and losses in the Atlantic Coast Conference over the past three weeks.
However, as demonstrated by Hubert Davis’ initial UNC squad two years ago, the March background holds significance.
R. J. Davis is a strong contender for the ACC Player of the Year award and is a top candidate for the “Kemba” title in March. Armando Bacot has consistently achieved double-doubles in March, even when he played alongside Ed Cota. It is expected that this March will be no different. While his three-point shooting has not been as impressive this season compared to his college career, Cormac Ryan has the potential to be this team’s Brady Manek when it counts.
7. Kansas Jayhawks (20-6, 8-5) USA
Although they have already suffered five losses in conference games and their metrics are not currently in the Top 15, there is a certain sense with the Kansas City Chiefs that I cannot overlook. It seems as though this team is patiently waiting for the crucial games to come.
To begin with, this is the sole team in the nation with a pair of players who may potentially be selected as first-team All-Americans. Throughout the season, Kevin McCullar (19.0 ppg) held the title of top scorer for the team, while Hunter Dickinson (18.2 ppg/11.0 rpg) solidified his highly sought-after status as a transfer portal player.
8. Duke Blue Devils (20-5, 11-3)
I had difficulty with the final spot on this List.
Alabama, Auburn, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa State, Creighton, and Kentucky all closely observed each other, but ultimately, the team I couldn’t let go of was the one that would have been on any list four months ago.
Herzog, similar to Kansas, has failed to live up to its high preseason ranking. The Blue Devils have a couple of blemishes and lack a standout performance to confidently predict their chances of winning it all.
